Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
29.3 miles North-East of Warm Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
29.3 miles North-East of Warm Springs
38.5628°N, 116.1433°W
Forecast Time Window
11th of August 2026
Aug 11, 2026 00:09:18 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
52.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
31.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.44
Predicted M2.54 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
8.0 km
Pred. 3.4 km vs actual 4.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
8a927b264643b9ab0351bc4beb2f8d5613ae8419d3cede1aad5324386d392f6c
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.56--116.14-t10338
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 11, 2026 01:24:28 PST
Source Batch
20260810_155135_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-11 01:24:29.872682+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.