Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
26.4 miles North of Warm Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
26.4 miles North of Warm Springs
38.5624°N, 116.3184°W
Forecast Time Window
3rd of August 2026
Aug 03, 2026 09:19:12 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
23h 26m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
211.7 km
111.7 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
6.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.24
Predicted M2.54 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
20.1 km
Pred. 15.2 km vs actual 4.9 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
a1244440aa6e29e8f156c551bf4a6f622f4cf7cbb8c23ea5573d865104d06c3b
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.56--116.32-t10334
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 02, 2026 09:52:53 PST
Source Batch
20260802_002417_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-02 09:52:54.675116+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.