Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
10.9 miles East of Hawthorne NV
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
10.9 miles East of Hawthorne NV
38.5587°N, 118.4277°W
Forecast Time Window
10th of August 2026
Aug 10, 2026 09:38:12 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
5h 55m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
61.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
42.5 h
6.5 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.04
Predicted M2.54 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
20.6 km
Pred. 9.6 km vs actual 11.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
253699206753088da47031b2b5245a430d6e109f334ba4cfe69c786c0982ee9c
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.56--118.43-t10337
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 10, 2026 03:42:32 PST
Source Batch
20260809_180953_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-09 20:23:58.874806+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.