Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
7.7 miles South-West of Nye
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.7 miles South-West of Nye
38.5669°N, 115.4451°W
Forecast Time Window
3rd of August 2026
Aug 03, 2026 23:16:25 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
23h 16m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
208.1 km
108.1 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
7.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.24
Predicted M2.54 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
20.1 km
Pred. 15.2 km vs actual 4.9 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
cf665c62600b11294f7da8942a002378c3ee11636e28fb5400c44b32a96c1028
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.57--115.45-t10334
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 03, 2026 00:00:12 PST
Source Batch
20260802_142607_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-03 00:00:20.683630+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.