Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
8.8 miles East of Babbitt
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.8 miles East of Babbitt
38.5664°N, 118.4704°W
Forecast Time Window
3rd of August 2026
Aug 03, 2026 07:02:01 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
24h 37m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
65.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
38.5 h
2.5 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.04
Predicted M2.54 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
25.2 km
Pred. 15.2 km vs actual 10.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
55f186c4bcbf93a2e55f3bbc4597780c0c95e1a92ee6a2e3ec438468c0cb771a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.57--118.47-t10334
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 02, 2026 06:24:29 PST
Source Batch
20260801_205507_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-02 06:24:30.171442+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.