Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
20.9 miles West of Manhattan
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
20.9 miles West of Manhattan
38.5750°N, 117.4469°W
Forecast Time Window
2nd of August 2026
Aug 02, 2026 21:30:34 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
22h 3m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
59.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
29.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.04
Predicted M2.54 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
25.2 km
Pred. 15.2 km vs actual 10.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
1a9e12c335fc8caac72866317becc8fdfd4a3e11e28fac2ddfad615799efcaab
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.58--117.45-t10333
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 01, 2026 23:26:38 PST
Source Batch
20260801_135710_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-01 16:26:20.565248+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.