Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
8.1 miles North-East of Babbitt
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.1 miles North-East of Babbitt
38.5809°N, 118.4906°W
Forecast Time Window
10th of August 2026
Aug 10, 2026 21:24:35 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
66.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
30.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.04
Predicted M2.54 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
14.4 km
Pred. 3.4 km vs actual 11.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
feac6555e2d14b0a40d8b3aa0fa8277da897d945544728339573645be9b815ad
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.58--118.49-t10337
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 10, 2026 21:47:53 PST
Source Batch
20260810_121529_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-10 21:47:54.605295+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.