Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
7.4 miles North-East of Babbitt
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.4 miles North-East of Babbitt
38.5814°N, 118.5072°W
Forecast Time Window
2nd of August 2026
Aug 02, 2026 04:17:52 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
18h 51m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
68.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
11.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.04
Predicted M2.54 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
25.2 km
Pred. 15.2 km vs actual 10.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
8e4a1d9a3274e2f7bfda92beb49d53f5131bcd5d9c69f41e9f230035e6375c57
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.58--118.51-t10333
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 01, 2026 09:26:15 PST
Source Batch
20260731_235644_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-01 09:26:33.276761+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.