Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
11.3 miles East of Babbitt
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
11.3 miles East of Babbitt
38.5861°N, 118.4295°W
Forecast Time Window
5th of August 2026
Aug 05, 2026 10:54:11 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
19h 24m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
83.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
9.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.76
Predicted M2.54 vs actual M3.3
Depth Error
8.1 km
Pred. 5.1 km vs actual 3.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
2f474913c1b24ad638a21a215c6cfb36784c10efa3b16160f758c0cb280ee77e
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.59--118.43-t10335
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 04, 2026 15:29:55 PST
Source Batch
20260804_055552_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-04 08:15:38.108866+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.