Permanent Prediction Record
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Window Elapsed

No Match Found

The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.

Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
10.3 miles North-East of Babbitt
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
10.3 miles North-East of Babbitt
38.5897°N, 118.4527°W
Forecast Time Window
14th of August 2026
Aug 14, 2026 14:36:44 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
11m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result

A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.

Distance Error
48.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
5.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.44
Predicted M2.54 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
19.4 km
Pred. 3.4 km vs actual 16.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
966a28921505aa23a07cc661fa74adf1d00df2e88fa861bca24bc2381e9f72ec
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-38.59--118.45-t10339
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 14, 2026 14:25:36 PST
Source Batch
20260814_115241_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-14 14:25:37.421797+00:00
Amendment History
Aug 14, 2026 10:54 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
event_time 2026-08-14 14:36:44.420000+00:00 2026-08-14T18:14:48.829
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 14, 2026 10:54 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
run_tag 2026-08-14 14:25:36.419474+00:00 2026-08-14T17:54:21.395398+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 14, 2026 14:25 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
event_time 2026-08-14 14:36:44.420000+00:00 2026-08-14T18:14:48.829
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 14, 2026 14:25 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
run_tag 2026-08-14 14:25:36.419474+00:00 2026-08-14T21:25:42.305625+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"
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