Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
29.9 miles North of Warm Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
29.9 miles North of Warm Springs
38.6001°N, 116.2362°W
Forecast Time Window
13th of August 2026
Aug 13, 2026 15:14:19 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
49.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
31.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.44
Predicted M2.54 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
8.0 km
Pred. 3.4 km vs actual 4.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
0c64411e4455bee24d29d9018dbecf482de2d6d923183c1d1fc7c5efa2657c3d
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.60--116.24-t10339
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 13, 2026 17:20:00 PST
Source Batch
20260813_074655_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-13 17:20:01.067154+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.