Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
7.4 miles North-West of Luning
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.4 miles North-West of Luning
38.5979°N, 118.2474°W
Forecast Time Window
10th of August 2026
Aug 10, 2026 11:48:45 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
56.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
40.4 h
4.4 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.04
Predicted M2.54 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
14.4 km
Pred. 3.4 km vs actual 11.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
31799cba9940dfc8a2e77da02f40ce5ba4fe86828dfb95ae28679043ab9f4ec4
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.60--118.25-t10337
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 10, 2026 14:33:33 PST
Source Batch
20260810_050122_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-10 10:57:03.705261+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.