Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
10.6 miles North-East of Babbitt
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
10.6 miles North-East of Babbitt
38.6008°N, 118.4519°W
Forecast Time Window
14th of August 2026
Aug 14, 2026 10:41:52 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
49.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
1.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.44
Predicted M2.54 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
19.4 km
Pred. 3.4 km vs actual 16.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
ef2e8fb5f8169513e3b68155f9a4aee97eab700034df969b04b8a0ce26cf211b
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-38.60--118.45-t10339
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 14, 2026 10:56:00 PST
Source Batch
20260814_012259_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-14 10:56:00.474842+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.