Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
8.0 miles North-East of Babbitt
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.0 miles North-East of Babbitt
38.6001°N, 118.5097°W
Forecast Time Window
13th of August 2026
Aug 13, 2026 15:14:19 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1h 26m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
51.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
17.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.44
Predicted M2.54 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
19.4 km
Pred. 3.4 km vs actual 16.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
5d97045a19bf84146e061debbf418b5cab4e3b1aa545dc3967a5a4956e1a0d26
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.60--118.51-t10339
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 13, 2026 13:47:53 PST
Source Batch
20260813_041513_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-13 13:47:54.526147+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.