Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
9.5 miles North-East of Babbitt
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
9.5 miles North-East of Babbitt
38.6166°N, 118.4899°W
Forecast Time Window
13th of August 2026
Aug 13, 2026 00:51:31 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1h 13m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
69.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
20.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.04
Predicted M2.54 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
14.4 km
Pred. 3.4 km vs actual 11.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
da2fecfec1151e50e68eaacf78f507f265bd947217042482e7fdd20d9771a998
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.62--118.49-t10339
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 12, 2026 23:37:40 PST
Source Batch
20260812_140550_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-12 23:37:41.763466+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.