Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
8.9 miles North-East of Geyserville
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.9 miles North-East of Geyserville
38.8394°N, 122.8388°W
Forecast Time Window
15th of August 2026
Aug 15, 2026 23:05:15 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
10.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
227h 48m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
4.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
2.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.57
Predicted M3.67 vs actual M2.1
- 0.57 over limit
Depth Error
13.3 km
Pred. 10.8 km vs actual 2.5 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
2df90c1ead7836dd8affb66b0e3682ebfcbae012d49c30f9407983bde2ff7526
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.84--122.84-t10340
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 06, 2026 11:17:01 PST
Source Batch
20260806_030156_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-06 07:35:09.256498+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.