Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
9.9 miles South-West of Schurz
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
9.9 miles South-West of Schurz
38.8597°N, 118.9487°W
Forecast Time Window
14th of August 2026
Aug 14, 2026 05:26:49 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
352h 29m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
97.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
3.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.84
Predicted M3.94 vs actual M2.1
- 0.84 over limit
Depth Error
30.1 km
Pred. 14.1 km vs actual 16.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
b3adc4cf77b10183eb17f6c9df5971a167f6104542fa70616bf3457b168f51c6
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.86--118.95-t10339
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 30, 2026 12:57:10 PST
Source Batch
20260729_053430_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-30 12:57:11.195655+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.