Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
9.1 miles North-West of Knights Landing
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
9.1 miles North-West of Knights Landing
38.9068°N, 121.8153°W
Forecast Time Window
2nd of August 2026
Aug 02, 2026 10:26:15 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
7h 31m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
92.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
22.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.13
Predicted M2.47 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
14.5 km
Pred. 7.6 km vs actual 6.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
9f5cf424da4a8664011a6a527f45032e8a6c08b2628260f0abd894863fc109ed
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.91--121.82-t10333
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 02, 2026 02:54:38 PST
Source Batch
20260801_172642_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-02 02:54:39.445982+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.