Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
9.4 miles North-West of Knights Landing
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
9.4 miles North-West of Knights Landing
38.9056°N, 121.8259°W
Forecast Time Window
2nd of August 2026
Aug 02, 2026 02:45:23 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
6h 49m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
91.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
15.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.13
Predicted M2.47 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
14.5 km
Pred. 7.6 km vs actual 6.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
9f38b7fe09c4e81990cf940b445d2d52d5ca2bfc27c75a9400a114be5f84f83b
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.91--121.83-t10333
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 01, 2026 19:56:19 PST
Source Batch
20260801_102732_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-01 19:56:19.867669+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.