Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
13.4 miles North of Clear Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
13.4 miles North of Clear Lake
39.2279°N, 122.6786°W
Forecast Time Window
26th of July 2026
Jul 26, 2026 18:43:04 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
48.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
11.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.69
Predicted M3.09 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
11.4 km
Pred. 7.9 km vs actual 3.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
c5cdd1d4375e7fbe51900f06a5d48fcb4519504c232d2e7ece846857475679ff
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-39.23--122.68-t10330
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 27, 2026 09:58:21 PST
Source Batch
20260727_025332_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-25 06:59:24.024244+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.