Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
11.5 miles East of Potter Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
11.5 miles East of Potter Valley
39.3550°N, 122.8971°W
Forecast Time Window
16th of August 2026
Aug 16, 2026 04:01:31 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
111h 50m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
60.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
7.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.04
Predicted M3.14 vs actual M2.1
- 0.04 over limit
Depth Error
18.2 km
Pred. 15.7 km vs actual 2.5 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
a5199f85c8dae5ad45bc68c553d64e2e028371449642d8d5a49dfbe392001843
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-39.35--122.90-t10340
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 11, 2026 12:10:52 PST
Source Batch
20260811_035635_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-08 00:18:16.373118+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.