Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
10.6 miles West of Princeton
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
10.6 miles West of Princeton
39.3564°N, 122.2064°W
Forecast Time Window
24th of August 2026
Aug 24, 2026 21:47:58 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
14m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
81.0 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
2.6 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.37
Predicted M2.77 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
7.0 km
Pred. 5.3 km vs actual 1.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
20bb28b95ff762f4d9cf846b112f79fc42b50ed7e9aa2cd664ba1a4668c3a98d
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-39.36--122.21-t10344
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 24, 2026 21:33:44 PST
Source Batch
20260824_111655_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-24 21:33:45.079381+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.