Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
11.8 miles East of Potter Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
11.8 miles East of Potter Valley
39.3553°N, 122.8902°W
Forecast Time Window
13th of August 2026
Aug 13, 2026 10:54:25 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
156h 34m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
60.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
24.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.06
Predicted M3.14 vs actual M3.2
Depth Error
18.5 km
Pred. 15.7 km vs actual 2.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
e91ec8776742311a68c09d6216d480c9a3ac1141637b9150e39f9dd4853ccafe
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-39.36--122.89-t10339
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 06, 2026 22:19:26 PST
Source Batch
20260806_140502_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-06 14:58:03.247612+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.