Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
12.5 miles South of Downieville
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
12.5 miles South of Downieville
39.3847°N, 120.7668°W
Forecast Time Window
25th of August 2026
Aug 25, 2026 11:01:48 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
144.7 km
19.7 km over 125 km limit
Time Error
26.1 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.27
Predicted M2.77 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
12.7 km
Pred. 5.3 km vs actual 7.4 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
dcda7c6d70f1ce9e284f7d57bc8180265281e9f9b3a3da856d8f5ab905e73496
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-39.38--120.77-t10345
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 25, 2026 11:09:51 PST
Source Batch
20260825_005136_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-25 11:09:52.097888+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.