Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
11.6 miles East of Potter Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
11.6 miles East of Potter Valley
39.3879°N, 122.9064°W
Forecast Time Window
11th of August 2026
Aug 11, 2026 17:33:31 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
223h 40m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
63.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
4.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.24
Predicted M3.14 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
9.7 km
Pred. 7.2 km vs actual 2.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
8a75062d21ce0a20c9ac726527fb0a875b59c98d3edb95cff49d8503e3009504
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-39.39--122.91-t10338
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 02, 2026 09:52:53 PST
Source Batch
20260802_013935_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-01 23:26:39.950538+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.