Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
24.7 miles North of Clear Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
24.7 miles North of Clear Lake
39.4040°N, 122.7568°W
Forecast Time Window
25th of August 2026
Aug 25, 2026 17:45:26 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
Predicted value
Focal Depth
12.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
15h 39m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
65.3 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
17.4 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.39
Predicted M2.79 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
13.8 km
Pred. 12.1 km vs actual 1.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
c3e10326df08fcd24400c77fdf9aefa78aa52c3910b70d6faceeea5208e4728e
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-39.40--122.76-t10345
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 25, 2026 02:05:55 PST
Source Batch
20260824_154837_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-25 02:05:56.366669+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.