Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
11.0 miles North-East of Potter Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
11.0 miles North-East of Potter Valley
39.3993°N, 122.9263°W
Forecast Time Window
9th of August 2026
Aug 09, 2026 16:16:57 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
222h 43m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
69.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
13.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.44
Predicted M3.14 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
8.8 km
Pred. 6.0 km vs actual 2.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
9ac1f3808996bff0cdcf0751f2a7cbb7a72b47ac4dd85d98ba2d716ff9e06313
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-39.40--122.93-t10337
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 31, 2026 09:33:12 PST
Source Batch
20260731_012013_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-30 19:52:09.559882+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.