Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
11.2 miles North-East of Potter Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
11.2 miles North-East of Potter Valley
39.4067°N, 122.9263°W
Forecast Time Window
9th of August 2026
Aug 09, 2026 16:16:57 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
232h 58m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
70.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
13.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.44
Predicted M3.14 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
8.8 km
Pred. 6.0 km vs actual 2.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
f4e32249aeee8e424e3348beda3cb349c7c1dfa88207eec6f68045e78380cb84
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-39.41--122.93-t10337
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 30, 2026 23:17:59 PST
Source Batch
20260730_150332_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-30 23:18:00.557176+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.