Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
17.7 miles North-East of Potter Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
17.7 miles North-East of Potter Valley
39.4242°N, 122.8029°W
Forecast Time Window
12th of August 2026
Aug 12, 2026 13:19:48 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
236h 25m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
67.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
2.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.06
Predicted M3.14 vs actual M3.2
Depth Error
18.5 km
Pred. 15.7 km vs actual 2.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
3163ca6c4e127307b527a3bbeb0537d110199b62aa0ff3d1d255b10be56a4816
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-39.42--122.80-t10338
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 02, 2026 16:54:35 PST
Source Batch
20260802_084122_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-02 16:54:36.868509+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.