Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
15.2 miles North-East of Potter Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
15.2 miles North-East of Potter Valley
39.4291°N, 122.8575°W
Forecast Time Window
16th of August 2026
Aug 16, 2026 04:01:31 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
126h 13m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
68.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
7.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.04
Predicted M3.14 vs actual M2.1
- 0.04 over limit
Depth Error
18.2 km
Pred. 15.7 km vs actual 2.5 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
e0d90110aa41794229eb180ceb9843d5119508fe5d4cf258e5f08c9c53ac1dec
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-39.43--122.86-t10340
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 10, 2026 21:47:53 PST
Source Batch
20260810_133321_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-07 20:34:54.161848+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.