Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
14.8 miles North-East of Potter Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
14.8 miles North-East of Potter Valley
39.4298°N, 122.8672°W
Forecast Time Window
10th of August 2026
Aug 10, 2026 20:53:32 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
230h 59m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
83.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
2.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.54
Predicted M3.14 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
15.2 km
Pred. 7.2 km vs actual 8.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
a1d11cfba4eb02aee5b8c3c0968bbdc2fe7a828b6a82717f30a984ec63de2576
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-39.43--122.87-t10337
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 01, 2026 05:54:02 PST
Source Batch
20260731_214050_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-01 05:54:03.886342+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.