Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
14.5 miles North-East of Potter Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
14.5 miles North-East of Potter Valley
39.4317°N, 122.8749°W
Forecast Time Window
13th of August 2026
Aug 13, 2026 00:26:57 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
200h 57m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
69.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
14.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.06
Predicted M3.14 vs actual M3.2
Depth Error
18.5 km
Pred. 15.7 km vs actual 2.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
b9052099b22eabc7ba1e353144adda47369fde915202851931e9584159181007
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-39.43--122.87-t10339
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 04, 2026 15:29:55 PST
Source Batch
20260804_071658_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-04 15:29:56.832845+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.