Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
14.2 miles North-East of Potter Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
14.2 miles North-East of Potter Valley
39.4255°N, 122.8763°W
Forecast Time Window
16th of August 2026
Aug 16, 2026 04:01:31 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
122h 37m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
68.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
7.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.04
Predicted M3.14 vs actual M2.1
- 0.04 over limit
Depth Error
18.2 km
Pred. 15.7 km vs actual 2.5 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
6786705836640fe89eb64973def0f0887882fcfbad26ad9b06881e0db5f61bb3
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-39.43--122.88-t10340
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 11, 2026 01:24:28 PST
Source Batch
20260810_170948_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-08 18:47:50.777693+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.