Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
13.7 miles North-East of Potter Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
13.7 miles North-East of Potter Valley
39.4363°N, 122.8959°W
Forecast Time Window
12th of August 2026
Aug 12, 2026 13:19:48 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
232h 52m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
69.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
2.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.06
Predicted M3.14 vs actual M3.2
Depth Error
18.5 km
Pred. 15.7 km vs actual 2.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
0542d0dadf4f3d940e32468b2867b564dcab7e1df21a8ce39a1d88175f6570cd
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-39.44--122.90-t10338
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 02, 2026 20:27:13 PST
Source Batch
20260802_121424_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-02 20:27:14.823204+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.