Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
13.7 miles North-East of Potter Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
13.7 miles North-East of Potter Valley
39.4363°N, 122.8959°W
Forecast Time Window
13th of August 2026
Aug 13, 2026 00:26:57 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
211h 48m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
69.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
14.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.06
Predicted M3.14 vs actual M3.2
Depth Error
18.5 km
Pred. 15.7 km vs actual 2.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
2531905886c2cfe7ac54caba01f2f7a46917d9ab6b6ca73c5740ac0d0bdb0637
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-39.44--122.90-t10339
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 04, 2026 04:38:43 PST
Source Batch
20260803_202614_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-03 03:34:22.291936+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.