Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
7.6 miles North-West of Gridley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.6 miles North-West of Gridley
39.4607°N, 121.7597°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of August 2026
Aug 01, 2026 19:26:30 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
6h 29m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
131.3 km
31.3 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
7.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.03
Predicted M2.47 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
12.6 km
Pred. 7.6 km vs actual 5.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
ce5e5521f32d304cef26c7413649c188dd06a2f54bf0eb41ad96633d59847ff3
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-39.46--121.76-t10333
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 01, 2026 12:57:19 PST
Source Batch
20260801_032821_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-01 12:57:21.108844+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.