Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
13.8 miles North-West of Princeton
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
13.8 miles North-West of Princeton
39.4779°N, 122.2557°W
Forecast Time Window
31st of July 2026
Jul 31, 2026 19:10:00 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
30h 12m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
50.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
12.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.27
Predicted M2.77 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
9.7 km
Pred. 4.2 km vs actual 5.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
952637ee7e7e6695bd3b5ea9e6d5b59c439ac98c66fae2e17b8da82a2fcdc633
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-39.48--122.26-t10332
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 30, 2026 12:57:10 PST
Source Batch
20260728_221221_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-30 12:57:11.195655+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.