Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
17.0 miles East of Fallon
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
17.0 miles East of Fallon
39.4975°N, 118.4603°W
Forecast Time Window
12th of August 2026
Aug 12, 2026 03:53:33 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1h 33m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
157.1 km
57.0 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
0.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.04
Predicted M2.54 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
14.4 km
Pred. 3.4 km vs actual 11.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
c56404cc19f25bc3b4aaafcfd12d486c11e5f20d349724635a8ca7a093bf9775
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-39.50--118.46-t10338
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 12, 2026 02:19:37 PST
Source Batch
20260811_164843_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-11 22:47:24.252004+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.