Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
7.3 miles South of Fernley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.3 miles South of Fernley
39.5069°N, 119.2158°W
Forecast Time Window
17th of August 2026
Aug 17, 2026 22:56:15 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
168.8 km
43.8 km over 125 km limit
Time Error
4.1 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.75
Predicted M2.85 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
15.7 km
Pred. 5.1 km vs actual 10.6 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
cca1c374b0db313c6c90d683e29428d9496b3f9cdab6f0d4005666b5801ec11f
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-39.51--119.22-t10341
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 18, 2026 01:52:07 PST
Source Batch
20260816_025545_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-18 01:52:08.440284+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.