Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
33.2 miles North of Clear Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
33.2 miles North of Clear Lake
39.5164°N, 122.6457°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of August 2026
Aug 01, 2026 12:23:04 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
47h 25m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
85.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
0.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.19
Predicted M2.79 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
11.1 km
Pred. 4.2 km vs actual 6.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
e3fe39b9550f3f0c853421e0a3c0ecd0d76d8f47f1c96714ebc59ecb18701db5
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-39.52--122.65-t10333
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 30, 2026 12:57:10 PST
Source Batch
20260728_221221_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-30 12:57:11.195655+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.