Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
15.5 miles North of Fernley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
15.5 miles North of Fernley
39.8326°N, 119.2413°W
Forecast Time Window
11th of August 2026
Aug 11, 2026 16:25:00 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
22h 13m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
217.0 km
117.0 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
13.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.03
Predicted M2.23 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
8.2 km
Pred. 6.4 km vs actual 1.8 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
17d703411a50bff52558d12cd30efd7804ca437df9f519da9fcf02962e9e1e7a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-39.83--119.24-t10338
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 10, 2026 18:11:05 PST
Source Batch
20260810_083745_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-10 18:11:06.766806+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.