Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
3.9 miles North-West of Garberville
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.9 miles North-West of Garberville
40.1433°N, 123.8418°W
Forecast Time Window
31st of July 2026
Jul 31, 2026 18:20:06 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
77.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
8.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.27
Predicted M2.47 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
31.2 km
Pred. 7.6 km vs actual 23.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
5a1df643fbe00869b80e5e5991f591c19dc9899a2ebf0ad3cd258461d7180139
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-40.14--123.84-t10332
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 31, 2026 19:34:12 PST
Source Batch
20260731_101611_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-31 16:14:02.656277+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.