Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
2.6 miles West of Red Bluff
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
2.6 miles West of Red Bluff
40.1759°N, 122.2845°W
Forecast Time Window
21st of August 2026
Aug 21, 2026 14:27:41 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
48m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
170.5 km
45.5 km over 125 km limit
Time Error
3.3 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.25
Predicted M2.85 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
18.4 km
Pred. 5.1 km vs actual 13.3 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
42bb82093e917a439bf468138404dca4d2deb97f065d1e0cb0fa7533975d30a3
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-40.18--122.28-t10343
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 21, 2026 13:38:58 PST
Source Batch
20260821_031852_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-21 13:38:59.635242+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.