Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
5.7 miles South-East of Chester
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.7 miles South-East of Chester
40.2773°N, 121.1336°W
Forecast Time Window
5th of August 2026
Aug 05, 2026 15:11:37 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
146h 14m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
12.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
12.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.57
Predicted M2.47 vs actual M1.9
Depth Error
16.1 km
Pred. 7.6 km vs actual 8.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
42e3ed02baf5934c1c16818bc75d66b7e584f7a88e4fc683d6c4af5959fd4a63
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-40.28--121.13-t10335
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 30, 2026 12:57:10 PST
Source Batch
20260730_033538_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-30 12:57:11.195655+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.