Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
9.7 miles North-East of Lovelock
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
9.7 miles North-East of Lovelock
40.3081°N, 118.3972°W
Forecast Time Window
13th of August 2026
Aug 13, 2026 22:35:26 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1h 43m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
235.7 km
135.7 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
15.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.24
Predicted M2.54 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
8.8 km
Pred. 3.4 km vs actual 5.3 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
fae9c64e412932b743ca1d9c21b31f6dccb2fbf896ef855b58b4d3c93df89c79
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-40.31--118.40-t10339
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 13, 2026 20:52:24 PST
Source Batch
20260813_111912_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-13 20:52:25.733806+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.