Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
13.5 miles North of Lovelock
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
13.5 miles North of Lovelock
40.3754°N, 118.4734°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of August 2026
Aug 01, 2026 01:59:08 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
30h 7m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
248.9 km
148.9 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
14.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.04
Predicted M2.54 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
25.2 km
Pred. 15.2 km vs actual 10.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
dd432d9510d073c0f71cfad2faf3aaa58a3cad1ec1494fc050ad888ebfdfbd55
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-40.38--118.47-t10333
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 30, 2026 19:52:08 PST
Source Batch
20260730_103142_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-30 19:52:09.559882+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.