Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
2.9 miles North-East of Cottonwood
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
2.9 miles North-East of Cottonwood
40.4132°N, 122.1898°W
Forecast Time Window
7th of August 2026
Aug 07, 2026 05:19:34 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
8.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
26.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.23
Predicted M2.47 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
20.9 km
Pred. 3.4 km vs actual 17.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
b92af744fe0025de38eb57d6c1a024b2a9321306169e2621abbc917deb9fd9b8
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-40.41--122.19-t10336
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 07, 2026 05:39:26 PST
Source Batch
20260806_200611_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-07 05:39:27.868892+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.