Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
18.5 miles West of Imlay
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.5 miles West of Imlay
40.5807°N, 118.4865°W
Forecast Time Window
2nd of August 2026
Aug 02, 2026 04:17:52 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
22h 23m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
84.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
46.0 h
10.0 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.54
Predicted M2.54 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
31.0 km
Pred. 15.2 km vs actual 15.8 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
7ee260fa65dec92df2ca869d182890ea4f6a718dfd088616abe88680ca00dbb6
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-40.58--118.49-t10333
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 01, 2026 05:54:02 PST
Source Batch
20260731_202541_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-01 05:54:03.886342+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.