Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.9
5.9 miles North of Imlay
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.9 miles North of Imlay
40.7374°N, 118.1708°W
Forecast Time Window
25th of August 2026
Aug 25, 2026 20:45:16 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
17.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
23h 11m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
130.7 km
5.7 km over 125 km limit
Time Error
40.7 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.64
Predicted M2.94 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
27.1 km
Pred. 17.7 km vs actual 9.4 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
4b529032d58da9ad63aeae7391201afb33282870fcae0f5af5612bf6bd1304f3
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-40.74--118.17-t10345
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 24, 2026 21:33:44 PST
Source Batch
20260824_111655_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-24 21:33:45.079381+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.