Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
10.4 miles South-West of O'Brien
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
10.4 miles South-West of O'Brien
40.7495°N, 122.5648°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of August 2026
Aug 01, 2026 08:39:19 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
83h 41m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
181.8 km
81.8 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
5.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.16
Predicted M2.04 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
27.8 km
Pred. 4.2 km vs actual 23.6 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
7bb8ca3e1e2b999edb6fd1f1c5088102c9d54ef523886e853dbe7b0298e7b0e3
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-40.75--122.56-t10333
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 28, 2026 20:58:19 PST
Source Batch
20260728_013753_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-28 20:58:19.825531+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.